第13期-2016 年展望:大马稳定!

Global Vagaries: 全球不稳定性

  1. Oil Crash to USD 20 per barrel for 6-10 mths? 高盛预测原油每桶USD20。我们推算原油每桶至少USD30。
  1. Rates Hikes faster and USD speeds up? 美国利息上升极快,美元高涨?我们推算美元可能维持于低档价位(美元指数处在 100 左右)
  1. EM’s Exchange Rates Volatility? 新兴市场货币大波动,缺美元流动性危机继续肆虐。
  1. China Mishaps in RMB reform 。中国让人民币贬值过激,导致区域性货币急跌。
  1. More Commodity EM’s Crises (at least 30 nations are facing bankruptcy and USD illiquidity like Argentina, Nigeria, Venezuela) 商品经济面对 “破产局势”。非洲、南美洲、东欧(前苏联)国家陷入困境。

13

The dollar may surprise on the downside while oil may bounce back from current multi-year lows next year, said an analyst.

Expect downside surprise in dollar, upside surprise in oil prices: Analyst(said Mark Jolley, equity strategist at CCB International Securities in Hong Kong.)建银国际证券的Mark Jolley认为国际油价会在2016年间回弹,美元同期降值。

Generally Malaysia is moving towards Higher Stability, and less volatility as in 2015. 大马更趋稳定。

  1. Ringgit Towards Certainties and Strengthening: Towards Less Volatility down more stability up i.e. range between 1USD buys RM 4.00 (+/- 5%) or within RM 3.80 and RM 4.20 . 令吉会在明年中旬向稳和趋升, 在1USD兑RM4.00(+/-5%)左右波动。
  1. Stock Range Bound Less Fluctuation: Range bound with short up/down swings. KLCI should be range bound between 1550-1750. KLCI will not crash like in August –Sept 2015. There may be sudden crash due to external factors (Black Swan), may rebound fast in such a case. 股市向稳,在 1550-1750 区间波动。
  1. Economic Cold Doldrums 经济淡静: Weak retail sentiment, low and slow property sales together with increasing auctions and price cuts later part of year. Business closure is picking up the pace after Chinese New Year. A lot more incidents of retrenchment including non-oil/gas sectors. 地产开始惨淡。“生意结业与削资现象”丛生。
  1. Political Stability: 政治稳定Sarawak BN Victory, UMNO-PAS Pact (either IN-BN or With BN), UMNO Stable, Parliament will pass Hudud and National Constituency delineation. Muhyiddin and gang’s challenge turning cold and futile. 砂劳越国阵大胜, 巫统-伊斯兰党促成合作。 国会批准“回刑法”和选区划分。慕尤丁全军覆没。
  1. Malaysian “Black Swan”: 大马的黑天鹅 1. BNM aggressive Rate hikes, 国行迅速升息。 2. Ringgit softens faster towards RM 4.80 per USD. 令吉迅速下跌到1USD兑RM4.80。3. Stock crash to below 1500. KLCI 股指掉到 1500 下方。 4. More Political Scandals (like 1MDB ) 更多政治丑闻。5. Foreign Massive Selling in Malaysian asset. 外资大量抛售大马资产。
  1. Worst Case Scenario: Malaysian Government deficits Ballooning: 最坏的形势:国际石油价格处在 每桶USD38 长达12 个月…也只是差RM 75 亿,在取消汽油津贴的前提之下,更高的消费税税收可以抵消政府的财案预算赤字。独立发电厂的津贴也可以逐步取消。

Even Oil prices crash to USD 38 per barrel for 12 months, (a USD 12 difference from Budget USD 48 per barrel or negative 25% from RM 30 billion or RM 7.5 billions), Government Budget deficit can be compensated by higher GST income and No subsidy on vehicles petrol.

欲阅读完整内容,请点击以下链接

订阅何博士 - 盈资讯

欲了解更多详情,请参加我们的分享会

马股入门体验班

欲了解更多详情,请参加我们的课堂

生命译码入门体验班

发表评论

电子邮件地址不会被公开。 必填项已用*标注